Research Newsletter, #14 (November 2016)
Editor’s Note
Finally, international forces started an operation to rescue Mosul and Raqqa at the same time. This is a good news for the people of both Mosul and Raqqa. It is very clear that IS will be removed from both cities. But there are a lot of challenges ahead of international community, especially EU and NATO ahead.
Couple of months ago, we mentioned that EU and USA will come to road junction in terms of their relations with Turkey regarding the Kurdish issue in the region. Now, we see that it is happening. We also mentioned that there will be a political instability in Turkey months ago. It is also happening now.
What will happen next and what to do? SAM research letters will continue to study on these topics with your support.
We also completed a study about Syrian population living in Tur-key and other countries in the region. We will start publishing some of these analysis soon. But if you want the full report regular update, please contact with us.
Post IS challenges in Mosul and Raqqa
Mosul operation finally started after a long preparation phase. People of Mosul have been waiting for this for a long time. The main reason for the delay was that Iraq army was not in good shape. Almost 2.5 years ago, Iraq army left Mosul to IS without resisting. This was a serious scandal as the Iraq army was trained by US and NATO countries. Therefore, this time US wanted to be sure that Iraq army is fully ready. However, the training of the Iraq army took long time.
IS has strong military capacity and they hold powerful guns. They are showing a strong resistance but every day they lose another front. Therefore, it is very clear that IS will lose the war in Mosul. Same goes for the operation in Raqqa as well. IS will lose in those in both cities. But post IS period will be very challenging and needed to be handled very carefully.
Both Mosul and Raqqa operation has two legs; Military operation and political issues. Iraq army decided not to include any international army into the operation especially for the ground offense. USA didn't accept to include in the operation to Raqqa as well. However, this caused a major problem between Turkey and Iraq, and Turkey and USA, as Turkey insisted to get involved in both operations. But why Turkey insisted so strongly to be included in? One of the main reason behind this is to save the rights of the Turkmens, as there is considerable lev-el of Turkmen population in Mosul. In addition to this, Turkey does not want its entire Syria border is controlled by YPG—Kurdish forces.
Turkey has bad experience from the operation in Kobani and Northern Syria. Turkey helped to save Kobani and other important towns from IS by opening its borders to Kurdish Forces. But later on, the demography in these regions completely changed; Turkmens were removed from the region and their properties were given to the Kurds.
The map1 given below indicates the Ethnic distribution in Northern Syria before the conflict started in the country. As it is seen in the map, the population is mixture of Kurds and Arabs in North-ern Syria. There was Turkmen Minority in Cerablus area as well.
Map1: Ethnic Distribution in Northern Syria before the civil war.
Map 2 presents the current situation in Northern Syria.
As it is seen, PYD and YPG, Kurdish groups occupied most of Northern Syria. Kurdish ethnicity now is the dominant group in the region. Arabs and Turkmens had to leave their properties and houses in Northern Syria and moved to Turkey or other countries. Kurds occupied the areas left by these ethnic groups.
Turkey is a NATO member and candidate country for EU. But both NATO and EU supports YPG-PYD in
Northern Syria. In addition to this, Russia supports Esad and fight against the all opposition groups including Free Syria Army which is supported by Turkey. Lastly, it is very obvious that Esad agreed with Kurds about establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region in Northern Syria. So, this table indicates that Turkey is alone in its fight. Turkey is an important country for both EU and NATO. But it seems that Turkey and EU and Turkey and NATO relations are going through the most difficult period ever. If this situation is not handled carefully, then more serious other problems may arise in the region.
Turkey does not want that entire Syria border is controlled by YPG-Kurdish forces. According to the Government of Turkey, PYD-YPG is accepted as terrorist. Therefore, Turkish army got into Syria and started to fight against IS. By this way, Turkey wants to be sure that entire border with Syria is not controlled by PYD-YPG.
Indeed, SAM wrote these challenges well before the operation started in its research newsletters. We also mentioned that USA and EU will have to decide between Turkey and Kurds in our previous research newsletters. It seems USA and EU decided to give more weight to Kurds and Kurdish Autonomous region instead of Turkey. In near future, Northern Kurdistan in Iraq and Autonomous Kurdish region in Northern Syria will get more and more assistance from EU and USA. What does this mean? Does it mean that USA—Turkey and EU-Turkey relations are over? No, we can’t say so but EU– Turkey relations and Turkey—USA can be further damaged in very near future before the end of the year.
The political challenge post IS operations will be very difficult and very challenging.
The next challenge is the re-construction of Mosul and Raqqa. It is well proven that organized crime and drug trafficking occurs very quickly in post war places. Therefore, an urgent rule of law capacity should be provided in these two cities. In addition to this, basic public services should be provided immediately. The best tool for such actions is the NGOs which are more flexible and faster compare to the large international organizations like UN. This time, instead of creating camps, it is better international organizations and donors start re-constructing these two cities immediately. People of Mosul and Raqqa has enough suffered and they need their home and peace.
Photo: © AFP 2016/ Nazeer al-Khatib
