Research Newsletter, #12 (June 2016)
EDITOR’S NOTE
We, as Statistics and More team several times mentioned that Russia and Turkey relations should be normalized. We also mentioned that how EU policies over refugee related issues which may cause growing of right wing extremism in EU.
We are glad to see that Russia—Turkey relations are getting better as Turkey agreed to apologize. Now, Russia should make its steps and start its warm relations with Turkey. These two powers needed to be together for the peace in Middle East and wider the region. Now, next step is to get Syria—Turkey relations back to its factory settings. Syria and Turkey people have been sharing the same culture and same region for centuries.
It is also essential that Russia—EU relations and EU-Syria relations get back to normal. This is the only way to save EU from terrorism and refugee flow. Therefore, it is time for EU to cooperate with Russia over Syria related issues.
We foresee that soon or later, EU-Syria-Russia-Turkey and USA will act together to bring peace to Middle East.
As for the Bretix, it is very likely that UK will change its mind and will stay at EU. If not, the main looser will not be EU but the UK. In addition to this, there is no way France or Holland can leave the union. EU needed such a shock which will make it even more stronger in long term.
Critical Changes on Syria Crises
Several times at our research newsletters, we mentioned that:
- The wrong policies of EU related with refugees will increase the right wing extremism and this would cause damage on EU;
- Turkey and Russia relations should be corrected;
- Turkey and Syria relations should be corrected because both Syria and Turkey defends the unity of Syria;
- Russia and EU relations should get back to normal over Syria related topics. EU should al-so get normalize the relations with Assad for a securer EU.
Out of above mentioned four strategic foresight, first two of them already happened. It is very important development to see that Russia—Turkey relations are getting back to normal. This will help to bring peace and stability to the region.
Unfortunately, wrong decisions of EU about the response to Syria refugee crises caused to dam-age unity of EU. Therefore, before getting too late, as Turkey did, EU should immediately change its policies and strategies about Syria. The only way of securing EU is to provide security in Syria so that Syrians go back their home. There is no any alternative. All other alternatives are not sustainable, efficient and effective.
EU should join Turkey and cooperate with Russia. Then the next step for both EU and Turkey is to normalize the relations with Assad as well. Turkey is getting back to its factory setting and it is time for EU as well.
We all need to see that Russia’s intervention in Syria pushed ISIS from several locations in the country. There are strong signals that ISIS will be pushed out from Syria before end of the year. But, this will not solve all the problems. The next and most difficult one is to re-establishment of Syria. Therefore, all related parties, Russia, EU, Turkey and USA should move together in a synchronized way to bring peace and stability for the people of Syria.
We, as Statistics and More research team, urge UN security council and EU countries and Turkey act together to remove terrorism and poverty from Middle East.
An urgent action plan is needed by EU, Russia and USA to improve the security and living conditions in Syria so that people of Syria go back to their homeland. There is no better home for Syrians outside of their own country.
Bretix
People of UK decided to leave EU at the recent referendum. Instead of discussing if it was a good decision or not, it is important to analyze why UK people decided so. More importantly, why France, Austria and Holland are also talking about leaving EU?
The answer is very simple, EU countries failed to develop a mutual refugee and immigration policy and strategy. Most of EU countries, except Germany scared about the large refugee flows. Because the infrastructure and life style in EU is not ready for such refugee flows.
Germany, approached the problem from the humanitarian assistance angle but it was a mistake. Be-cause EU citizens are not ready for this. They feel that their life style is threaten by the large refugee populations. In fact, they were right to worry because it is important to know that Muslim communities in EU has not fully integrated to EU yet.
In addition to this, some of the EU countries like France and UK are not very happy about having equal status with other comparatively less developed EU countries like Bulgaria, Romania and etc. Therefore, they want to change the structure of EU and get more privileges. It is clear that there is a power struggle between EU lead countries.
So, what is next? Will some other important EU countries also leave EU? It is very unlikely. UK can leave EU, because they were never 100% part of EU. They have more stronger relations with USA compare to EU. Therefore, UK may prefer to establish a new union with USA. In fact, they can also include Saudi Arabia and Israel into that union as well.
However, it is most likely that UK will change its decision and stay at EU. Because it is obvious that UK will loose more than EU losses. In addition to this, neither France nor Holland will leave the Union. UK will somehow manage to get back to EU with more privileged status. In fact, US prefers its most closest strategic partner UK to stay in EU as well.
Most importantly, EU countries should shake and take their lessons from this situation. They wanted to eliminate the Assad regime but they failed. Their wrong refugee policies is causing severe damages for EU. Now, EU is facing with serious threat of being dissolved. Therefore, it is time for them to revise their policies over refugees and Middle East. Overall, there is a lot of lessons learned of recent Bretix voting. Now, it is time for EU politicians to think once again carefully and make the right steps to not to cause further chaos neither in EU nor in the Middle East.
