Research Newsletter, #6 (Feb. 2016)

Who Buys IS Oil?

There has been an ongoing discussion about the oil trade of IS for a long time. All the countries or relevant international companies strongly denies that they buy oil produced by IS. However, if this is true, then who is buying? If no one is buying then how come IS makes huge profit?

As everybody knows, the territory controlled by IS is landlocked and do not have any border with sea. Therefore, IS oil has to be transferred to neighbor countries through pipeline or road transportation. Therefore, somehow, IS oil is transferred to third countries after semi processed in Iraq.

It is also a fact that IS is not exporting its oil with its own brand. There is no oil marketed in the world with a brand name “made by IS “. At least we have not reached to that dramatic point yet.

Overall, there is only option left to market the IS oil to outside of Iraq and Syria; Mixing the semi processed oil with the oil produced in Iraq (including Northern Iraq). By this way, oil produced by IS travels in the world. That means, whichever country or company buying oil from Iraq, somehow importing oil produced by IS as well. Of course, this is not to blame neither Iraq nor the importing countries but this is the fact and action has to be needed to avoid IS making money from oil trade.

Therefore, strong control is needed over:

• Oil refining stations in Iraq and especially at the ones at Northern Iraq,
• More strong air control over the road network between IS controlled oil pumps and oil refining stations in Iraq (including Northern Iraq). This can only be done by a strong cooperation be-tween NATO—Russia and Iraq. Otherwise, IS will continue to enjoy high level of income from oil trade and expand its activities.

Can Power Buy Respect?

Unfortunately, nowadays many people believes that money can buy everything including love and respect, although the life everyday proves that this is not the case at all.

One can only force people to get their respect by paying but this cannot be long term. Soon or later, any relation based on money and financial interest fails or broken one day. Such as the relation between Taliban and Western World was based on money. Taliban fought against Russia to get financial benefit. Then we all what happened as soon as Taliban wanted more power in Afghanistan.

One of the main reason of failure in Afghanistan is that NATO, ISAF or most of international donors did not manage to gain the respect of the Afghans, although they spent at least US$ 1 million a day since 2002.

Unfortunately, same can repeat in Syria as well. The Syrian opposition groups which includes Salafi Jihadist terrorist ones may one day turn against the their financial sources.. When this happens, more chaos will come to Syria and the region. Everyone, especially UN Security Council Members has to get lessons from the experiences and should not have any relation or contacts with jihadist groups. UN Security council Members and NATO needs to understand that they can never have a trust and respect based relations with such groups.

Furthermore, a lot of countries and organizations are spending millions of dollars per day for the crises in Syria. However, no one knows that international community managed to earn the respect of the mi-grants. Is money or provision of temporary shelter is enough for these people? No, it is not. They want to get back to their country and live their normal life as they have been used to for decades. Syrian and Iraqi migrants deserve much better treatment then they have now.

In addition to this, soon or later, there will be tensions between Syrian refugees and nationalists in Europe. Nationalism and number of people supporting far right ideas are increasing in Europe day by day. Therefore, having an immediate mutual agreement over Syria is for everyone’s benefit.

It is now time UN Security Council Members prove that they respect each other and they have no interest to expand their control beyond their lands. If so, they have to make agreement immediately. We all know that if this happens, IS and other terrorist organizations can be removed from Syria and Iraq in not more than two weeks. Is there any power, which can fight against Russia and US? If someone believes that this is possible, should really need a medical help. If Russia and US joins their powers, then can clean all the terrorist groups from Middle East easily.

History clearly proves that a country or a group or a person cannot hold the control forever. There are several countries who were very powerful several hundred years ago are not in their positions at all. Soon or later, current situation in the world will change again. Therefore, countries who has the power now should know that whatever they cultivate they will harvest one day. If they cultivate respect, trust, transparency, equality and equity, then they will harvest the same when they need it.

Turkey, USA and PYD (Partiya Yekitiya Demokrat)

In our previous edition, we highlighted that Turkey and its close alliance USA would come to a road

Junction about the policies and strategies over establishment of a Kurdish Autonomous Government in Northern Syria in near future. We already started to see Turkey-USA relations are getting tense as USA is supporting PYD and establishing a Northern Syria Kurdish Autonomous region like the one in Northern Iraq. Turkey is obviously against and very disappointed about USA. However, on the other hand, Turkey would know that this would happen as soon as the conflict started in Syria in 2011. Therefore, it is too late to complain or blame anyone that this is happening. Turkey has many very good analysts in its all relevant Government organizations. It is most likely that they saw that danger. It is very unlikely that Turkish Government was not aware of “ Great Middle East Plans “ and establishment of United States of Kurdistan covering Northern Syria, South-Eastern Turkey, Northern Iraq and Eastern Iran. USA and EU provide strong support for the Kurdish Movement in the region for many years. This was obvious and well-know too. Therefore, the question is that why Turkey damaged its relations with Russia, Egypt and Syria, given that its close alliances have completely different strategy and policy about Kurdish related issues in the region. İf two parties have completely different approaches for such an important geo-political strategy, how this can be called as a strategic partnership?

However, on the other hand, Turkey cannot blame USA. Because USA did not cover its ultimate goals in Middle East. USA strategies, policies and actions were consistent and enough transparent about Kurdish related issues for many years. It is also clear that IS terrorist group was helping about establishment of United States of Kurdistan in the region as well. Therefore, Turkey should question its international politics and strategies but not blame the others. Such as, why all of suddenly Turkey broke its relations with Russia? These two countries together could create an important synergy in the region. Indeed, it was going on this direction. Two countries agreed to develop a new gas pipeline from Russia to Europe via Turkey in summer in 2015. The level of trade and tourism be-tween these counties reached its record levels ever. While all these good developments were happening between two countries, all of a suddenly Turkey down a Russian jet. Not easy to explain the reason for this.

Overall, Turkey is getting singled out in its region day by day. This might cause economic and political problems for the country. The only card in its hands is the refugee card against EU. EU does not know what to do with millions of refugees. Germany especially is over worried about this scenario. If Turkey opens the doors then entire EU can be invaded by Syrian and Iraqi refugees. It is not clear how long this situation can continue.

Overall, it is time for Turkey to revisit its relations with Russia, Syria and Egypt. It is benefit of Turkey, if the relations are back to normal with Russia. Russia makes it obvious that they prefer to have a peace if Turkey makes the first step.

As for the establishment of Kurdish Autonomous Region in Northern Syria, Turkey cannot reverse the Kurdish Spring. This is more or less impossible and it is too late as well. Therefore, Turkey should focus on how to control the situation within its borders. It is time to get back to diplomacy instead of using guns.

USA and EU also have to understand that any instability in Turkey will cause serious security problems for their countries and citizens. Both powers need to understand the drivers of the Turkish Culture. They need to know that they cannot control the region by injecting religion regularly. They have to know that they are playing with fire if they continue with their cur-rent strategies. Maybe it is again needed to remind them that there is no moderate Islam and Moderate Terrorism.

Instead, EU and USA need to focus on at least 6 million Syrian Refugee Children who has no hopes about the future. They are vulnerable and might be attracted by terrorist and organized crime groups in the region. If this happens, people neither in EU nor in US are in safe. Therefore, instead of spending money for weapons and meaningless power struggles, they need to allocate good amount of budget for education of refugee children.

Last word, we all need to remember, whatever we cultivate we harvest one day. EU and USA, if they cultivate peace in the region, they will harvest accordingly. If not, they are in trouble too.