Research Newsletter, #8 (Mar. 2016)

Syrians Back to Home

In our previous newsletter, our analysis suggested that the only way of stopping the flow of refugees was to establish peace in Syria. We are very glad to see that Russia, USA and EU agreed about cease-fire in Syria. It seems that cease-fire will be extended further. This is the only way to save the future of people of Syria.

Free Syria Army and Syria Regime forces will soon be agreed about the road map of Syria as well. Most likely, they will together get rid of terrorist groups from their lands.

Peace in Syria will help Syrians suffering in difficult conditions in other countries. At the same time, EU will relax about the threat of refugee flow to its borders. The financial burden of Syrian refugees for Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and Lebanon will decrease.

The intervention of Russia yielded good results in Syria. Russia proved its diplomatic and military capacity. In addition to this, it is proven that once Russia, EU and USA are agreed, problems can be solved easily in the region.

Now, there are two common targets for these three powers:

• Getting rid of IS and other terrorist groups from Syria and Iraq
• Rebuilding of peace and development basic services in Syria

It is very likely that Syria regime forces, free Syrian Army and PYD forces will jointly clear Syria from terrorist groups. It is also clear that there is a consensus about establishment of autonomous Kurdish Region at Northern Syria between all concerned groups. Turkish Government is against this idea. But most likely Turkish authorities will have to accept this reality as they did for Northern Iraq as well.

Overall, the looser of the Syrian war are people of Syria, Saudi Arabia and Turkish Government. The winners are Kurds, Israel, USA and Russia.

Rebuilding of peace and Government services will take time in Syria. There will be a lot of responsibilities for the international organizations and donor countries like World Bank, UN, USA, EU, Russia etc. to re-build the basic services in Syria. Once some visible steps are taken by these organizations and countries, Syrian refugees will start going back their countries.

Kurdish Movement in Turkey

There are over 10 million Kurds living in different parts of Turkey. Furthermore, there are more Kurds living in metropolitan cities of Turkey (Istanbul, İzmir and Antalya) compare to the South Eastern Anatolia (where most of the population is Kurdish). Therefore, it is not possible to draw a boundary be-tween Turkish and Kurdish populated regions. This suggests that these two nations will need to live together but in an agreed way. However, this agreement cannot be achieved by guns.

First of all, PKK is not helping at all the Kurdish people. Such as, over 200, 000 people (majority Kurdish) had to leave their houses due to the clash between PKK and Turkish law enforcement. These people lost their properties and business. They are now jobless and in need of humanitarian support. Turkish Government forces won the war in several towns but now Turkish Government needs to help these people like the Syrian refugees. It is very likely that Government of Turkey will do needed steps on this soon.

PKK is getting ready for a violent war in Turkey. It is true that they can kill more civilians as they recently did at capital of Turkey. But they cannot win this war. If PKK insists on this strategy, Kurdish people will be more and more suffer.

PKK is now taking the advantage of the gaps at Turkish intelligence system. But this situation will not continue long time. Soon or later, Turkish intelligence and forces will find a way to avoid explosions at big cities. PKK is making a strategic mistake by thinking that the problem between Turkey and Russia or Turkey and Syria will continue forever. It is very likely that Turkish Government will have a U-turn at its foreign policy anytime soon. Most likely, Turkey will smooth its relations with Russia, Syria and even with PYD at Northern Syria. Another reality is that PYD will refuse PKK like Northern Iraq did.

Overall, the only solution for Kurds goes through having presence at Turkish Parliament. But this can only be achieved if Kurdish political party, HDP, puts a barrier between its self and PKK. Otherwise, Kurds will not be presented in the parliament in near future. HDP should understand that the more PKK is organizing terrorist attacks in Turkey, the more HDP is loosing its votes but AKP (AK political party) is gaining more power.

A long and difficult year is ahead of both Turkish and Kurdish people. Anything can happen from today on until end of the year. Because no one knows including top leaders of PKK, HDP and Turkish Government about how to solve the problem and bring peace back.

Where Turkey is heading (II)?

The decision makers of AKP Government seems that they strongly reject the mistakes they did about:

• Downing a Russian Plane,
• Opening its borders to Syrian Refugees without any control mechanism and long term strategies,
• PKK related policies

Cost of these mistakes were expensive for Turkey:

i – Turkey lost its sizeable trade with Russia: Turkish tourism, agriculture and construction sec-tor were heavily depending on the trade with Russia. After the relations damaged with Russia, Turkish tourism industry has started to suffer. Such as only 55 Russian persons visited/arrived Antalya in February 2016. As a result, a lot of hotels are closed in Antalya, Istanbul and other touristic regions.

Turkish construction companies lost contracts, which were worth US$ 60 billion in Russia. There were around 10, 000 Turkish contraction workers working in Russia before the crises. But vast majority of these persons lost their jobs.

Turkish agriculture sector is also suffering, as Russian stopped imports of most of Turkish agricultural products

ii – Turkey lost its role in Syria and as a result, a Kurdish Autonomous region is developed at Northern Syria.

iii – Millions of Syrians flew to Turkey without any proper control and strategy. Almost 90 percent of them live in the different cities of Turkey. There is no any registration system and therefore there is no way, where these people live and what they do to survive. Furthermore, there are thou-sands of terrorists (PKK, jihadist radicals etc.) arrived to Turkey as well. These persons are threat for both Turkey and EU.

iv – Turkish Government made a strategic mistake to ignore the military preparations of PKK during the peace building period. As a result, hundreds of civilians and Turkish law enforcement persons lost their life. In addition to this, the relations between Turkish Government and Kurds are heavily damaged.

v — The financial burden of Syrian refuges coasted over US$ 10 billion to the Turkish Government.

In addition to this, a lot of Turkish people lost their jobs as well.

vi – Turkish Government Policies were damaged at international podium due to the all the wrong strategic mistakes made in recent years

Overall, Turkish Government needs to make a U-turn at its international policies. Otherwise, both Turkey and Governing party, AKP will lose. Turkey will be singled out further, if it does not change its current foreign political positions.

However, such a U-turn will create tension between current prime minister and president of Turkey. The relations between these two might be further damaged in very near future. It is not sustainable to manage to country with two leaders who has different opinions about certain strategic issues.

Syrian Children and Youth

There are around 13 million Syrians had to leave their homes until today. Half of them are below age 18 and do not have a proper access to education. This is totally against the goals of millennium development, which targets to achieve an equal access to basic Government services for all groups.

Total of at least 6 million children and young persons (below age 18) do not have any hope about their future. They cannot continue to their education. Most of those children have to work and find money for their families.

These children are at target of organized crime and terrorist groups. Drug and human traffickers love such situations as they can easily organize their recruitments.

Therefore, Syrian children and youth, so the future of Syria is under a huge threat. Such as there are around over one million Syrian children living outside of camps in Turkey. Almost 80 percent of them do not attend any education services. Because they have to work and find money for their living.

It is very clear that Turkey does not have enough infrastructure to provide education for Syrian Children. In addition to this, it would be a strategic mistake for Turkey to host all those Syrian Children and families in Turkey. It is also a problematic situation for EU. Because if Syrian families stays in Turkey longer than 5 years, they can apply for Turkish identification card and passport. If Turkey is accepted to EU, then automatically all the Syrians living in Turkey will have an access to EU as well.

So, overall, there is only one solution that Syrians should go back to their country. For that reason, it is essential to build temporary or permanent cities at secure parts of Syria. Hundreds of schools and thousands of houses house can be constructed until September 2016. By this way, Syrian children who goes back to Syria can have a proper education, their families can live at proper houses and find a better income generation resources.

Otherwise, this issue cannot be solved by scattered type of assistance provided by different Governments and NGOs.

So, we, Middle East Team of Statistics and More organization urgently call international organizations, USA, Russia and EU to start building of new residences at secure regions of Syria.